Sellers are jumping on top of every breakout from Bitcoin and altcoins, indicating that the bears are in no hurry to let go of their advantage.
Price analysis 6/25: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, DOGE, XRP, DOT, UNI, BCH, LTCPRICE ANALYSIS
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains jittery and throughout this week, every relief rally is being sold into. This is a classic bear market reaction and may not end in a hurry. However, the current price action should not worry investors because the longer the time spent in a bottoming formation, the stronger the base for the next leg of the up-move.
In a recent note to investors, JPMorgan said that Bitcoin’s fair value may remain between $23,000 and $35,000 over the medium term. The bank pointed out that outflows from crypto Bitcoin funds since the fall on May 19, show a lack of demand from institutional investors. Another reason that may be capping Bitcoin’s price is the massive unlocking of Bitcoin from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund at the end of the six-month lock-up period.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
None of the events of the past few days have changed the long-term view of Bitcoin. Jason Urban, the co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital said that Bitcoin may “see something north of $70,000 by the end of the year.”
Although not a game-changer, the Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund has seen an average inflow of 86.15 Bitcoin between May 15 and June 24, according to Glassnode data. This has boosted the ETF’s assets under management to 21,114 BTC. This shows that smart investors are gradually chipping away instead of trying to time the bottom.
Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the critical support levels that could be touched if the downtrend continues.
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Bitcoin’s rebound off the $31,000 to $28,000 support zone has turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average ($35,788) today. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate an advantage to the bears.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers will now make one more attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the down move and plummet to $20,000.
However, the bulls will not give up easily. They are likely to defend the support zone aggressively. If the price rebounds off this zone once again, the bulls will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA.
If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could continue its consolidation between $28,000 and $42,451.67 for the next few days. A breakout and close above this range will be the first sign that the downtrend may have ended.
Ether’s (ETH) rebound off the $1,728.74 support fizzled out at $2,045 on June 23. This suggests a lack of buyers at higher levels. Both moving averages have turned down and the RSI is near the oversold zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down and breaks below the $1,728.74 support, the ETH/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $1,536.92 and then $1,293.18. The deeper the fall, the longer it will take for the bulls to start the next leg of the uptrend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price again rebounds off $1,728.74, it will suggest that the bulls are defending this level aggressively. A breakout and close above the 20-day EMA ($2,248) will be the first indication that a bottoming formation may have started.
Binance Coin’s (BNB) bounce off the $211.70 support is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($332). This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will now make one more attempt to sink the price below the $211.70 support. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $200 and then $126.75.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the $211.70 support, it will suggest strong accumulation by the bulls at this level. If the buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $433. A breakout and close above this resistance will be the first sign that the downtrend may be over.
Cardano (ADA) rebounded off the $1 support on June 22 but the bulls seem to have hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($1.42). This suggests that the bears have not thrown in the towel yet and are trying to maintain the upper hand.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers will now try to pull the price down to $1. This is an important support to watch out for because it has not been broken on a closing basis since Feb. 23. Therefore, a break below $1 may result in a long liquidation.
The ADA/USDT pair could then drop to $0.68 and if the selling intensifies, the decline could even extend to $0.40.
However, the bulls will have other plans. They will again try to defend the $1 support. If they succeed, the pair may break out of the 20-day EMA and rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($1.61).
Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the $0.15 support on June 22 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.28) today. After the sharp relief rally of the past three days, the bears are likely to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA and the neckline aggressively.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the overhead resistance zone, the bears will try to pull the price back to $0.15. A break and close below this level will suggest that traders sold their positions during the current rally. The DOGE/USDT pair could then drop to $0.10.
On the other hand, if the bulls defend the next drop to the $0.21 support, it will signal strength. A breakout and close above the neckline will be the first sign that the pair’s correction could be over and a bottoming formation may begin.