Price analysis 6/25

Sellers are jumping on top of every breakout from Bitcoin and altcoins, indicating that the bears are in no hurry to let go of their advantage.

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Price analysis 6/25: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, DOGE, XRP, DOT, UNI, BCH, LTCPRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin (BTC) price remains jittery and throughout this week, every relief rally is being sold into. This is a classic bear market reaction and may not end in a hurry. However, the current price action should not worry investors because the longer the time spent in a bottoming formation, the stronger the base for the next leg of the up-move.

In a recent note to investors, JPMorgan said that Bitcoin’s fair value may remain between $23,000 and $35,000 over the medium term. The bank pointed out that outflows from crypto Bitcoin funds since the fall on May 19, show a lack of demand from institutional investors. Another reason that may be capping Bitcoin’s price is the massive unlocking of Bitcoin from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund at the end of the six-month lock-up period.

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Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
None of the events of the past few days have changed the long-term view of Bitcoin. Jason Urban, the co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital said that Bitcoin may “see something north of $70,000 by the end of the year.”

Although not a game-changer, the Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund has seen an average inflow of 86.15 Bitcoin between May 15 and June 24, according to Glassnode data. This has boosted the ETF’s assets under management to 21,114 BTC. This shows that smart investors are gradually chipping away instead of trying to time the bottom.

Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the critical support levels that could be touched if the downtrend continues.

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BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s rebound off the $31,000 to $28,000 support zone has turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average ($35,788) today. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate an advantage to the bears.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers will now make one more attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the down move and plummet to $20,000.

However, the bulls will not give up easily. They are likely to defend the support zone aggressively. If the price rebounds off this zone once again, the bulls will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA.

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If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could continue its consolidation between $28,000 and $42,451.67 for the next few days. A breakout and close above this range will be the first sign that the downtrend may have ended.

ETH/USDT
Ether’s (ETH) rebound off the $1,728.74 support fizzled out at $2,045 on June 23. This suggests a lack of buyers at higher levels. Both moving averages have turned down and the RSI is near the oversold zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down and breaks below the $1,728.74 support, the ETH/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $1,536.92 and then $1,293.18. The deeper the fall, the longer it will take for the bulls to start the next leg of the uptrend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price again rebounds off $1,728.74, it will suggest that the bulls are defending this level aggressively. A breakout and close above the 20-day EMA ($2,248) will be the first indication that a bottoming formation may have started.

BNB/USDT
Binance Coin’s (BNB) bounce off the $211.70 support is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($332). This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

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BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will now make one more attempt to sink the price below the $211.70 support. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $200 and then $126.75.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the $211.70 support, it will suggest strong accumulation by the bulls at this level. If the buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $433. A breakout and close above this resistance will be the first sign that the downtrend may be over.

ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) rebounded off the $1 support on June 22 but the bulls seem to have hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($1.42). This suggests that the bears have not thrown in the towel yet and are trying to maintain the upper hand.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers will now try to pull the price down to $1. This is an important support to watch out for because it has not been broken on a closing basis since Feb. 23. Therefore, a break below $1 may result in a long liquidation.

The ADA/USDT pair could then drop to $0.68 and if the selling intensifies, the decline could even extend to $0.40.

However, the bulls will have other plans. They will again try to defend the $1 support. If they succeed, the pair may break out of the 20-day EMA and rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($1.61).

DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the $0.15 support on June 22 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.28) today. After the sharp relief rally of the past three days, the bears are likely to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA and the neckline aggressively.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the overhead resistance zone, the bears will try to pull the price back to $0.15. A break and close below this level will suggest that traders sold their positions during the current rally. The DOGE/USDT pair could then drop to $0.10.

On the other hand, if the bulls defend the next drop to the $0.21 support, it will signal strength. A breakout and close above the neckline will be the first sign that the pair’s correction could be over and a bottoming formation may begin.

Daily Tech Analysis – July 3rd, 2021

Ethereum rose by 2.79% Friday. Partially reversing a 7.45% slide from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,156.00.

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A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum slide to a late morning intraday low $2,017.07 before making a move.

The morning reversal saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,027.

Through the 2nd half of the day, however, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,159.43.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,232, Ethereum eased back to end the day at $2,156 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.28% to $2,150.04. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,166.60 before falling to a low $2,150.04.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

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For the day ahead
Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,111 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,205 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,200 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rebound, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,300. The second major resistance level sits at $2,253.

A fall through the $2,111 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,062 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $1,967.

Looking at the Technical Indicators
First Major Support Level: $2,062

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Pivot Level: $2,111

First Major Resistance Level: $2,205

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

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Litecoin
Litecoin slipped by 0.09% on Friday. Following a 5.03% loss on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $136.91.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $139.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $143, Litecoin slid to a late morning intraday low $130.60.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $133 before a partial recovery to $136 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.35% to $136.43. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $137.34 before falling to a low $136.43.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

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For the day ahead
Litecoin would need to avoid the $136 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $140 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $140 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $139.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $150. The second major resistance level sits at $144.

A fall through the $136 pivot would bring the first major support level at $132 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$130 levels. The second major support level sits at $127.

Looking at the Technical Indicators
First Major Support Level: $132

Pivot Level: $136

First Major Resistance Level: $140

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP
Ripple’s XRP fell by 0.34% on Friday. Following a 6.24% slide on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.65717.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $0.66686 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6948, Ripple’s XRP slid to a midday intraday low $0.63337.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.6355 before a partial recovery to $0.65 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.32% to $0.65509. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.65887 before falling to a low $0.65509.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.